Let's Talk Hot Off The Press...

2Q Report Indicates Housing Market is On Pace to Be a Great Year

Naples, Fla. (July 17, 2015) - According to the Second Quarter 2015 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), 60 percent of the market experienced inventory growth, and overall sales activity remained on pace with activity experienced in the second quarter of 2014. The report also indicated a 9 percent increase in pending sales (quarter over quarter) for homes priced above $300,000. These factors and other statistics in the 2Q 2015 Market Report have led broker analysts to conclude another great year is very likely.



"In this quarter last year, 44 percent of pending sales [homes under contract] were for homes in the price category over $300,000," said Brett Brown, a Broker/Salesperson for Premier Sotheby's International Realty. "The current report shows us that the number of pending sales has increased to 53 percent of the market."



Brown pointed out that from 2010 to 2012 80 percent of all pending sales were composed of homes under $300,000. But second quarter reports for 2014 and 2015 identify a shift took place in pending sales activity to homes at higher price points within the market. And while inventory in the under $300,000 price category decreased 24 percent in the 2Q of 2015 (the same rate as in the 1Q of 2015); this price segment no longer makes up the majority of the market's inventory.



Broker analysts contend that the market was quite different 10 years ago with a lot of flipping and loose financing going on. But the consumer and industry setting is different today. The 2Q 2015 Market Report revealed where the differences occurred like median closed price, where prices for homes between $300,000 and $2 million leveled out increasing or decreasing 0 to 2 percent. Other differences revealed in the 2Q Report are a gradual increase in financed homes to 38.3 percent of the market in June 2015, and a non-traditional market (short sales and foreclosures) that is dwindling at just 7 percent of the market.  



"Prior to 2014, prices in all segments were going up," said Tom Bringardner, Jr., President/CEO of Premier Commercial. "But a side-by-side comparison of overall activity for the first six months of last year to this year signifies a different climate where the market has reached stabilization."



According to the 2Q 2015 Market Report, the Naples area experienced a 14 percent increase in overall median closed price from $255,000 in the 12-months ending 2Q of 2014 to $290,000 in the 12-months ending 2Q of 2015. Yet this increase was driven by increases at both ends of the market spectrum during this time period; i.e., an 11 percent increase in homes under $300,000, and a 15 percent increase in homes $2M and above. Incidentally, the median closed price for homes in price categories over $300,000 and under $2M decreased 1 percent.



Pockets of market highs and lows will continue to appear in the area, as demand and location continue to be major market influencers. For example, the report showed an 83 percent increase in inventory for condominiums in the $2M and above price category from 29 units in the 2Q of 2014 to 53 units in the 2Q of 2015, and a 23 percent decrease in condominium inventory in the Naples Beach area from 476 units in the 2Q of 2014 to 368 units in the 2Q of 2015.



Inventory for single-family homes continued to rise in the 2Q of 2015 with a 9 percent increase from 1,964 single-family homes in the 2Q of 2014 to 2,133 single-family homes in the 2Q of 2015. Whereas the condominium market saw an 11 percent decrease in inventory for 2Q 2015 from 1,759 condominiums in the 2Q 2014 to 1,565 condominiums in the 2Q of 2015.



The NABOR® 2Q 2015 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® 2Q 2015 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:

• Overall pending sales decreased 4 percent from 2,949 in the 2Q of 2014 to 2,843 in the 2Q of 2015.
• Overall closed sales remained flat with no increase or decrease reported in the 2Q of 2015.
• Closed sales for condominiums in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category increased 38 percent from 682 in the 2Q of 2014 to 938 in the 2Q of 2015.
• Overall median closed price increased 14 percent from $255,000 in the 12-months ending 2Q of 2014 to $290,000 in the 12-months ending 2Q of 2015.
• Overall inventory decreased 1 percent from 3,723 homes in the 2Q of 2014 to 3,698 homes in the 2Q of 2015.
• Overall inventory for homes in the under $300,000 price category decreased 24 percent from 1,366 homes in the 2Q of 2014 to 1,036 homes in the 2Q of 2015.
• Inventory for single-family homes in the $500,000 to $1M price category increased 32 percent from 456 single-family homes in the 2Q of 2014 to 604 single-family homes in the 2Q of 2015.
• Average days on market decreased 20 percent from 94 days in the 2Q of 2014 to 75 days in the 2Q of 2015.  

The NABOR® June 2015 Market Report was also released and reflected these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:

• Overall pending sales increased 5 percent from 840 homes in June 2014 to 882 homes in June 2015.
• Overall closed sales remained flat with no increase or decrease reported in the 12-months ending June 2015.
• Overall median closed price increased 14 percent from $255,000 in the 12-months ending June 2014 to $290,000 in the 12-months ending June 2015.
• Overall inventory decreased 1 percent from 3,723 homes in June 2014 to 3,698 homes in June 2015.
• Average Days on market decreased 22 percent from 94 days in June 2014 to 73 days in June 2015.

"Overall inventory is almost the same number as it was this time last year. That is amazing when you consider the fact that we have had 9,850 closings over the last twelve months. Overall, this tells you that the properties are being listed almost as fast as we are selling them. Certainly we would like to see more listings come on the market than the 3,698 properties that are currently listed," said Mike Hughes NABOR President, Vice President and General Manager of Downing-Frye Realty, Inc. "If there is a perception that inventory is dramatically shrinking, the 2Q Market Report shows us that this observation is unfounded."



"I saw a lot more locals selling and buying homes in the second quarter of 2015," said Steve Barker, Advising Broker for Equity Realty, who added that market conditions are right for this type of transition. "People are no longer underwater in their homes and are confident it's a good time to sell and move into a new community."

As always if you have any questions please feel free to contact me by e-mail or by calling 239.404.7787.

I hope you have a fantastic day!

Michelle



View June 2015 Market Statistics

View 2Q 2015 Market Statistics

 

Michelle J. DeNomme, REALTOR, GRI

Cellular Phone:  239.404.7787

E-Mail: Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty

Office: 239.659.2400

E-Fax Number:  239.236.5550

Website:  www.NaplesHomeSweetHome.com        

Blog Page:   http://michelledenomme.blogspot.com  

Twitter Me: DeNommeRealtor

Let's Talk... Hot off the Press!

Traditional Sales of Homes Highest on Record

Naples, Fla. (May 22, 2015) - What makes a room full of real estate brokers happy? Record-breaking sales! This realization surfaced during a recent meeting where 10 NABOR® brokers reviewed the April 2015 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island). The report showed that traditional sales comprised 94% of all closed sales as compared to non-traditional sales (foreclosures or short sales).

                                                                                           

Carmen Vasquez, owner/broker U.S. Prime Realty, pointed out that, "April 2015 had 1,095 traditional sales. This is the highest number of traditional sales in a month since we started tracking the NABOR® numbers back in 2009."  

 

Veteran Broker and Principal at Naples Realty Services, Inc. John Steinwand concurred with Vasquez and illustrated further that, "Not only did April register the highest percentage of traditional sales since 2009, but the data revealed the highest total number of closed sales since July 2009, and the lowest level of distressed property closings in the past six years. Just 10 short sales and 57 foreclosed sales were closed this April versus 330 total distressed sales back in July of 2009."

 

April was a remarkable month for the real estate market with notable results in pending sales (properties under contract) of condominiums in the $2 million and above price category, which saw a 58 percent increase from 12 pending sales in April 2014 to 19 pending sales in April 2015. Relative to this increase was an increase in the same category's inventory, which rose by 74 percent from 34 condos in inventory in April 2014 to 59 condos in inventory in April 2015.

 

Further, the April 2015 Market Report indicated that overall closed sales had positive gains in all price categories above $300,000 with the $300,000 to $500,000 category capturing the highest gain - 21 percent from 1,787 in the 12-months ending April 2014 to 2,162 in the 12-months ending April 2015.

 

The overall median closed price increased 13 percent in April from $250,000 in the 12-months ending April 2014 to $283,000 in the 12-months ending April2015. This was fueled mostly by activity on both ends of the price spectrum. Homes in the $0 to $300,000 price category experienced a 10 percent increase in median home price from $168,000 in the 12-months ending April 2014 to $185,000 in the 12-months ending April 2015, while homes in the $2 million and above price category experienced a 9 percent increase in median home price from $2,900,000 in the 12-months ending April 2014 to $3,175,000 in the 12-months ending April 2015.

 

According to Cindy Carroll, SRA, with the real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Carroll & Carroll, Inc., "We can see some real trends when we look at the market with an historic comparison. For example, in the fall of 2013, the median closed price for single-family homes in the $0 to $300,000 price range increased 18 percent. For April 2015, there was only a 9 percent increase from $182,000 in the 12-months ending April 2014 to $199,000 in the 12-months ending April 2015."

 

The self-correcting trend became even more apparent when Carroll compared activity from the report by neighborhood, "In July 2014, the median closed price for single-family homes in the Naples Beach area increased 36 percent. In April 2015, this area saw an 11 percent increase. I think the market played catch up between 2013 and 2014 and we are seeing a tempering of it now."

 

The NABOR® April 2015 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® April 2015 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:

• Overall pending sales decreased 2 percent from 1,231 in April 2014 to 1,210 in April 2015.
• Overall closed sales remained flat with no increase or decrease reported on a 12-months ending basis.
• Overall closed sales in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category increased 21 percent from 1,787 homes in the 12-months ending April 2014 to 2,162 homes in the 12-months ending April 2015.
• Overall median closed price increased 13 percent from $250,000 in the 12-months ending April 2014 to $283,000 in the 12-months ending April 2015.
• Overall inventory decreased 3 percent from 4,157 homes in April 2014 to 4,040 homes in April 2015.
• Inventory for single-family homes increased 4 percent from 2,206 single-family homes in April 2014 to 2,289 single-family homes in April 2015.
• Inventory for condominiums decreased 10 percent from 1,951 condominiums in April 2014 to 1,751 condominiums in April 2015.
• Average days on market decreased 28 percent from 99 homes in April 2014 to 71 homes in April 2015.

"Overall, April 2015 had a 5.06-month supply of inventory compared to a 34.78-month supply in April 2007," said Bill Coffey, Broker Manager of Amerivest Realty Naples.

 

Many of the brokers who analyzed the April 2015 Market Report had recently returned from the National Association of REALTORS® Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo in Washington, DC, and concurred that sales activity in the Naples area, as also reflected in the report, is in line with the national average.

 

However, the April 2015 Market Report by NABOR® showed an 18 percent decline in the days on market to 76 days from 93 days a year ago. Yet according to a REALTOR® Confidence Index report published by Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist with the National Association of REALTORS®, the national average in March 2015 was 52 days.

As alwayds if you have any questions please feel free to contact me by e-mail Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com or by calling 239.404.7787 To view the full report just click the Link... View April 2015 Market Statistics

I hope you have afantastic weekend,

Michelle

Michelle J. DeNomme, REALTOR, GRI

Cellular Phone:  239.404.7787

E-Mail: Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty

Office: 239.659.2400

E-Fax Number:  239.236.5550

Website:  www.NaplesHomeSweetHome.com        

Blog Page:   http://michelledenomme.blogspot.com  

Twitter Me: DeNommeRealtor

 

Let's Talk... Hot off the Press!!!

Buyers Shift Focus to Condominium Market

Naples, Fla. (April 17, 2015) - Overall activity in the Naples area real estate market across all price categories remains steady, according to the First Quarter 2015 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island). Most notable in the report was the $300,000 - $500,000 price category for condominiums in which the overall closed and pending sales increased by double digits in the first quarter of 2015. Statistics show a recent shift in buyer focus from single-family homes to condominiums.

 

Broker analysts reviewing the First Quarter 2015 Market Report agree that a new trend may be emerging, as the report showed condominiums outperforming single-family home sales. As such, these analysts predict condominiums will see continued rise in activity moving into summer.

 

"Pending and closed sales in the mid-level price range [$300K - $500K] for both March and first quarter outperformed all other areas of the market," said Phil Wood, President & CEO of John R. Wood Properties.  "Perhaps this is reflective of vacation home buyers who want a place to escape the winter weather. Condos are the easiest way for them to do so, since exterior maintenance issues are handled by the associations."

 

"The difference in performance between the single-family home market and condo market in the $300,000 -$500,000 price category for the first quarter is quite impressive," said Steve Barker, Advising Broker for Equity Realty. "Pending sales for condominiums in the $300,000 - $500,000 price category increased 53 percent. Yet, while the single family home market is very good, pending sales for single-family homes in this same price category increased only half that, at 26 percent."

 

Supporting analysis presented by Cindy Carroll SRA, with the real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Carroll & Carroll, Inc., at NABOR®'s Economic Summit earlier this month, several brokers including Kathy Zorn, Bill Coffey and Mike Hughes pointed out that the First Quarter 2015 Market Report indicated location as a big factor in home sales activity.

 

Hughes remarked that, "the overall median closed price in all geo-specific areas of the county increased double digits compared to the same quarter last year." Zorn added, "in both the Central Naples and South Naples areas, the median closed price rose 17 percent compared to the first quarter of 2014."

 

Overall inventory for the $300,000 - $500,000 price category in the first quarter of 2015 increased 14 percent from 934 homes in the first quarter of 2014 to 1,061 homes in the first quarter of 2015. Only the inventory in the over $2 million price category had a larger increase - 18 percent - expanding from 400 homes in the first quarter of 2014 to 471 homes in the first quarter of 2015.

 

"The number of people paying cash for their homes remains strong," said Barker, who added, "a stunning 73 percent of all home sales in the first quarter of 2015 were cash-only purchases. Strict lending standards combined with low inventory continue to give the advantage to cash buyers in this housing market."

 

"We also see that in March, traditional sales dominated the market at 91 percent," said Bill Poteet, owner and broker at Poteet Properties. "There were 921 traditional sales and only 19 non-traditional [short sale and/or foreclosed] sales." He went on to note that March's market performance is typically a leading indicator of the trend we can expect going in to the summer.

 

The NABOR® 1Q 2015 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® 1Q 2015 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:  

• Overall pending sales increased 3 percent from 3,532 in 1Q 2014 to 3,628 in 1Q 2015.
• Pending sales in the single-family home market increased 5 percent from 1,563 single-family homes in 1Q 2014 to 1,634 single-family homes in 1Q 2015.
• Pending sales in the condominium market increase 1 percent from 1,969 condominiums in 1Q 2014 to 1,994 condominiums in 1Q 2015.
• Overall closed sales decreased 4 percent from 2,409 in 1Q 2014 to 2,312 in 1Q 2015.
• Closed sales for single-family homes decreased 13 percent in the $0 - $300,000 price category from 473 single-family homes in 1Q 2014 to 412 single-family homes in the 1Q 2015,
• Closed sales for single-family homes increased 14 percent in the $300,000 - $500,000 price category from 264 single-family homes in 1Q 2014 to 300 single-family homes in 1Q 2015.
• Overall median closed price increased 13 percent from $265,000 in 1Q 2014 to $300,000 in 1Q 2015.
• Overall median closed price for homes over $2 million increased 11 percent from $2,877,000 in 1Q 2014 to $3,200,000 in 1Q 2015.
• Median closed price for condominiums in the $2 million and above price category decreased 13 percent from $2,775,000 in 1Q 2014 to $2,405,000 in 1Q 2015.
• Overall inventory decreased 3 percent from 4,405 homes in 1Q 2014 to 4,253 homes in 1Q 2015.
• Inventory of single-family homes in the $0 - $300,000 price category decreased 28 percent from 537 single-family homes in 1Q 2014 to 385 single-family homes in 1Q 2015.
• Inventory of single-family homes in the $500,000 - $1 million price category increased 21 percent from 529 in 1Q 2014 to 640 in 1Q 2015.
• Inventory for condominiums in the $2 million and above price category increased 77 percent from 39 in 1Q 2014 to 69 in 1Q 2015.
• Average days on market decreased 11 percent from 95 in 1Q 2014 to 85 in 1Q 2015.

The NABOR® March 2015 Market Report was also released and reflected these overall (single-family and condominium) findings: 

• Overall pending sales increased 9 percent from 1,399 homes in March 2014 to 1,520 homes in March 2015.
• Overall closed sales increased 3 percent from 981 homes in March 2014 to 1,014 homes in March 2015.
• Overall median closed price increased 12 percent from $248,000 in the 12-months ending March 2014 to $278,000 in the 12-months ending March 2015.
• Overall median closed price in the $0-$300,000 category increased 9 percent from $165,000 in the 12-months ending March 2014 to $189,000 in the 12-months ending March 2015.
• Overall inventory decreased 3 percent from 4,405 homes in March 2014 to 4,253 in March 2015.
• Average days on market decreased 16 percent from 94 days in March 2014 to 80 days in March 2015.

"The statistics show that the lower the price category, the faster the home will sell and the higher the price category, the longer it takes to sell," said Brenda Fioretti, Managing Broker at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty. "For example, homes in the $0 - $300,000 price range sold in an average of 64 days in the first quarter of 2015, while homes in the over $2 million price category stayed on the market 152 days before they sold."

 

The First Quarter 2015 and March 2015 Market Reports reflect exactly what all three economic experts predicted at NABOR®'s 4^th annual Economic Summit: that the real estate industry in Florida is very good and will continue to stay very good through 2015. 

As always if you have any questions please feel free to contact me by e-mail or by calling 239.404.7787.

I hope you have a fantastic weekend! :0)

Michelle

 

 View March 2015 Market Statistics

 View 1Q 2015 Market Statistics 

 

Michelle J. DeNomme, REALTOR, GRI

Cellular Phone:  239.404.7787

E-Mail: Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty

Office: 239.659.2400

E-Fax Number:  239.236.5550

Website:  www.NaplesHomeSweetHome.com        

Blog Page:   http://michelledenomme.blogspot.com  

Twitter Me: DeNommeRealtor

Let's Talk... Hot Off the Press

 

NABOR® Report Indicates Healthy Market Trends Continue   Naples, Fla. (March 20, 2015) - An increase in the number of home sales in the over $300,000 price categories, overall rising median closed prices, and an increase in inventory in most price segments were just some of the trends included in NABOR's February 2015 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island). But the best news? These trends are expected to continue.   "We saw year-over-year growth in our overall median closed prices throughout 2014; and with February getting off to a similar start, we expect that trend will continue," Vice President and General Manager of Downing-Frye Realty and NABOR®'s 2015 President Mike Hughes said. "Our inventory remains low yet we ended February with 1,280 sales pending. This indicates a healthy market." According to Kathy Zorn, broker/owner of Florida Home Realty, "February's activity revealed that sellers may not be sitting on the fence anymore. It's been 10 years of recovery and many homeowners who've weathered it may be at a place where they feel satisfied their property's value has recovered."   While overall closed sales activity for single-family homes remained even in February 2015 compared to a year ago, its inventory grew by 6 percent from 2,305 homes in February 2014 to 2,449 homes in February 2015. "I don't think the increase in inventory is necessarily all due to bracket creep," said Zorn. "Homeowners keep an eye on their property values. When they presume their home has rebuilt equity, many will contact a REALTOR® to confirm the increase in value. If the equity is confirmed, they're likely to put their home on the market."   Wes Kunkle, a commercial broker at Kunkle Realty, said the resale market's recovery will likely affect new home construction prices. "The report shows a trend of increased inventory in single-family homes that I believe will begin to put pressure on new home construction prices. We may see a pricing peak in the new home market sooner than later."   However, as indicated in the February report, the condominium market is not performing as well as the single-family home market. Closed sales for condominiums decreased 17 percent from 395 in February 2014 to 329 in February 2015. As expected, this decrease may be a result of a 16 percent decrease in condominium inventory, which fell from 2,328 units in February 2014 to 1,957 units in February 2015.   "Condos are not recovering as well as single-family homes because they are at the whim of certain financing obstacles," said Cindy Carroll, SRA, with the real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Carroll & Carroll, Inc. "Getting a bank to approve a loan on a condo is more difficult because they typically rely on extenuating factors such as the financial health of the homeowners' association, the age and structural state of the building, and a requirement to receive Fannie Mae approval."   Despite these obstacles, broker analysts think the condominium market's activity in the last year is an indication of its potential for an increase in value. For example, pending sales for condominiums in the $300,000 - $500,000 price category increased 87 percent from 79 units in February 2014 to 148 units in February 2015 and overall, the median closed price jumped 14 percent during that time period. "We've seen a recovery and stellar activity in the single-family home market. It wouldn't surprise me if condominiums became the new exchange," said Carroll. "And may experience the same type of recovery as the single family home market."   The NABOR® February 2015 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® February 2015 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:  Overall pending sales increased 3 percent from 1,244 in February 2014 to 1,280 in February 2015. Overall closed sales decreased 1 percent from 9,808 in the 12-months ending February 2014 to 9,720 in the 12-months ending February 2015. Closed sales for single-family homes decreased 1 percent from 4,682 homes in February 2014 to 4,612 homes in February 2015. Closed sales for condominiums decreased less than a percent from 5,126 condominiums in February 2014 to 5,108 in February 2015. Overall median closed price increased 12 percent from $245,000 in the 12-months ending February 2014 to $275,000 in the 12-months ending February 2015. Overall inventory decreased 5 percent from 4,633 homes in February 2014 to 4,406 homes in February 2015. Inventory for single-family homes increased 6 percent from 2,305 homes in February 2014 to 2,449 homes in February 2015. Inventory for condominiums decreased 16 percent from 2,328 in February 2014 to 1,957 in February 2015. Average days on market for February 2015 were 93.  There are 3,027 homes for sale in the Naples area that are priced above $300,000. This comprises about 66 percent of the market. If you are a homeowner that sat steady while the market recovered, find out whether your home has gained equity by contacting a REALTOR®. A REALTOR® has the experience and knowledge to do provide an accurate market comparison that will help you determine whether now is the right time to sell your home and ensure your next sale or purchase in the Naples area is a success. Contact a REALTOR® on NaplesArea.com®.   As always if you have any questions please feel free to contact me by calling 239.404.7787 or by e-mail at Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com I hope you have a fantastic weekend, Michelle   View February 2015 Market Statistics   To view the entire report, visit www.NaplesArea.com

We are the OneGroupNaples!  

Michelle J. DeNomme, REALTOR, GRI

Cellular Phone:  239.404.7787

E-Mail: Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty

Office: 239.659.2400

E-Fax Number:  239.236.5550

Website:  www.NaplesHomeSweetHome.com        

Blog Page:   http://michelledenomme.blogspot.com  

Twitter Me: DeNommeRealtor

Let's Talk...

Winners and losers if the Fed hikes rates

 

NEW YORK (AP) – March 18, 2015 – Interest rates could soon rise in the U.S. for the first time in almost a decade, and that's shaking up financial markets.
If you own stocks of Coca-Cola or Procter & Gamble, you may already see the impact in your 401(k). And if you're making plans to visit Europe, you've probably noticed the dollar has surged against the euro.
These shifts can all be traced back to the Federal Reserve and what it decides to do with rates.
Since December 2008, the central bank has held its benchmark rate close to zero to support the economy by encouraging borrowing and spending. It's been even longer since the Fed actually raised the cost of borrowing. That was back in June 2006.
The Fed wraps up a policy meeting Wednesday and investors will be watching closely for any hints about whether the central bank is weighing a rate hike. Areas of the economy appear to be stuttering, but the jobs market has strengthened, and some analysts think the Fed could lift rates as soon as June. Higher rates are meant to combat inflation, which is a risk if wages and prices start to edge higher along with the jobs market.
But investors aren't waiting for the Fed to move. They're already favoring stocks they think will do well under an improving economy – and the higher rates that come with it. They're also steering away from investments they think will suffer.
Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at Blackrock, the money manager, says investors should expect "bigger drops and bigger swings" in the market as people scramble to adjust their portfolios after six years of near-zero rates. "This is going to be a change in the environment."
Here's how the prospect of higher rates is shaping stocks, bonds, borrowing and saving:
STOCKS
LosersPeople holding utility stocks have suffered losses this year. Utilities as a group have slumped 7.1 percent in 2015, the biggest loss among the 10 industry sectors that make up the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
These stocks typically pay dividends that are high relative to their companies' share prices. They were in demand last year, when government bond yields fell, and investors wanted them for the level of income they were no longer able to get from bonds.
Now, as yields on those ultra-safe bonds have edged higher, these stocks are less attractive. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which had dropped as low has 1.64 percent in January, has climbed to 2.06 percent. Dividend-rich stocks, which carry more risk than Treasurys, look less attractive.
Other stocks that traditionally pay big dividends to investors, such as telecommunications companies, have also started to struggle. Telecoms have fallen 3 percent this month.
Possibly the biggest impact on stocks has been from the currency market, where the dollar has surged.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the U.S. currency against a basket of others, is up 10 percent this year.
As the U.S. currency climbs, companies that rely on overseas sales for a large portion of their revenues have seen their stocks slide.
Investors who own Coca-Cola, which derives more than a third of its sales from outside the U.S., have seen the stock slump 4.2 percent this year. Procter & Gamble, owner of the Gillette and Crest brands, is down 9 percent. The S&P 500 index is flat over the same period.
WinnersStores, restaurants and media companies should be among the better performers this year as the U.S. economy continues to strengthen and hiring picks up. Low gasoline prices will put more money in people's pockets, also helping consumer-focused stocks.
Consumer discretionary stocks are the second-best performers of the sectors that make up the S&P 500. The industry group is up 4.5 percent since the start of 2015.
Americans' willingness to spend "isn't going to be much affected by the rise in interest rates, it will be more impacted by the fact that the economy is getting better," says Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist at Voya Investment Management. "It's a better economy, it's a better job market, and that's why the Fed is raising rates."
BONDS
LosersThe biggest threat to investors from rising rates could come from the investment considered the safest, namely U.S. Treasurys, says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist & economist at Wells Capital Management.
Prices for Treasury notes have rallied since the start of 2014, sending their yields lower. The trend surprised many analysts who expected bond prices to fall as the Fed wound down a massive bond-buying program that was part of its effort to boost the U.S. economy. But as economies in other parts of the world struggled or slowed, investors bought more ultra-safe Treasurys, and drove prices higher.
Treasury prices are "very, very much out of line," given the relative strength of the economy, says Paulsen. The unemployment rate has fallen to a seven-year low of 5.5 percent, and most economists expect the economy to grow around 3 percent this year. At 2.06 percent, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is lower than 3 percent level from six years ago, during the recession.
"The message from the bond market, supposedly, is that the world today is worse than it was than at any point during the Great Recession, which is nonsense," says Paulsen.
His expectation is that Treasury prices will fall sharply, pushing the yield on the 10-year note as high as 3.25 percent by the end of this year.
WinnersOf course, not all bonds are the same.
Junk bonds, riskier securities that pay higher yields than Treasurys, traditionally do well in a rising rate environment, says Rob Waldner, chief strategist at fund manager Invesco.
The bonds are issued by companies that have a relatively high amount of debt compared their earnings. The earnings of these companies typically rise when the economy is improving, and that offsets the impact of higher interest rates.
Junk-rated companies also tend to lock in their borrowing costs for a couple of years when they sell bonds, says Martin Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors LLC. That means they are protected from the impact of higher rates, at least initially.
Since the start of the year, junk bonds have handed investors a 2 percent return, according to the Barclays US High Yield index, which tracks the performance of the securities.
Municipal bonds, issued by local governments, also tend to do well for the same reason as junk bonds.
"In a rising rate environment, you have good growth going on and you have good credit quality," says Invesco's Waldner. "High yield almost always outperforms."
IMPACT ON CONSUMERS
SaversIf you're relying on savings, you'll probably welcome higher interest rates. The best rates on one-year certificate of deposits are about 1.2 percent, according to Bankrate.com. That means for every $1,000 you save, you will make $12 a year. Higher rates will boost your income.
BorrowersAs rates rise, people with large credit card balances may face higher payments. So could those looking to buy a home.
Mortgage rates, which are linked to Treasury yields, will climb should bond yields start to rise. The average 30-year mortgage rate is at about 3.7 percent, according to Freddie Mac. That compares with about 5.9 percent a decade ago and 7.9 percent in 1995.
Dave Roda, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank, says that consumers should assess their finances and try to lock in their borrowing costs now while rates are still low.
"We probably won't see rates this low again, maybe in our lifetimes," he says.
Copyright 2015 USA Today, Steve Rothwell

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REALTORS® Complete 1,100 Written Contracts  and 600 Closed Sales in January   Naples, Fla. (February 20, 2015) - The Naples area housing market is off to a solid start according to broker analysts who evaluated the January 2015 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island). Inventory declined a moderate 5 percent from 4,776 homes in January 2014 to 4,515 homes in January 2015, and overall closed sales in every price category above $300,000 increased by double digits in the 12-months ending January 2015. Overall median closed price increased 13 percent to $273,000 in the 12-months ending January 2015 from $242,000 in the 12-months ending January 2014.    "We're not seeing as dramatic a decrease in inventory this January as in last January," said Mike Hughes, NABOR® president and Vice President/General Manager of Downing-Frye Realty. Inventory decreased only 5 percent from January 2014 over January 2015, compared to a decrease in inventory of 15 percent from January 2013 over January 2014. Hughes believes this slowing of inventory decline may be a good sign and remarked that "we should expect another tremendous season for home sales."    As typically seen during the first three months of the year, cash sales are also on the rise. In January, the 394 cash sales reported accounted for 70 percent of home sales transactions in the Naples area. The report also showed sales of foreclosed homes in January were at their lowest - 64 - since NABOR® began reporting home sales activity in July 2009 when foreclosures numbered 240.   "Activity in the luxury home market continues to be the most impressive," said Coco Waldenmayer, a managing broker at John R. Wood Properties. According to the report, pending sales, based on signed real estate contracts, for single family homes in the $1 to $2 million category increased 53 percent from 36 pending sales in January 2014 to 55 in January 2015, while in the same price category in the condominium market, pending sales decreased 22 percent from 36 in January 2014 to 28 pending sales in January 2015. Not surprisingly, the inventory for condominiums in this $1 million to $2 million category had the largest decline too at 26 percent.   As pointed out by several broker analysts during NABOR®'s 2014 annual media conference on January 16th, buyers looking for single family homes in 2015 will be pleased. In fact, according to Cindy Carroll, SRA, with the real estate appraisal and consultancy firm of Carroll & Carroll, Inc., affordable single-family homes are not appreciating out of control, as often speculated. "The median closed price for single-family homes in the $300,000 and below category increased 16 percent from January 2013 to January 2014. Yet the January report showed an increase of only 8 percent from $178,000 in January 2014 to $193,000 in January 2015."   "The key is to work with a REALTOR® that knows the Naples market," said Pat Pitocchi, NABOR® media relations chairperson and corporate trainer at Downing-Frye Realty. "Regardless of whether you are in the market to purchase a starter home or a seasonal residence, a REALTOR® can simplify the process and help you find exactly what you want."   The NABOR® January 2015 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® January 2015 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:  Overall pending sales decreased 1 percent from 1,117 in January 2014 to 1,103 in January 2015. Pending sales for single-family homes increased 5 percent from 510 in January 2014 to 536 in January 2015. Pending sales for condominiums in the $300,000 to $500,000 category increased 51 percent from 82 in January 2014 to 124 in January 2015. Overall closed sales decreased 1 percent from 9,835 in the 12-months ending January 2014 to 9,759 in the 12-months ending January 2015. Overall closed sales for single-family homes in the $2 million and above category increased 37 percent from 213 in the 12-months ending January 2014 to 292 in the 12-months ending January 2015. Overall median closed price increased 13 percent from $242,000 in the 12-months ending January 2014 to $273,000 in the 12-months ending January 2015. Overall inventory decreased 5 percent from 4,776 homes in January 2014 to 4,515 homes in January 2015. Average days on market for January 2015 were 85.  According to the report, the inventory of homes for sale in the $300,000 and below category in January 2015 encompassed about 33 percent of the market at 1,479 units. And while overall inventory fell 5 percent from 4,776 in January 2014 to 4,515 in January 2015, the $300,000 and below category experienced the largest drop in inventory (-24%) from 1,938 in January 2014 to 1,479 in January 2015. Despite a sinking of inventory in the $300,000 and below price category, there were increases in inventory in three other price categories: $330,000 to $500,000 increased 15 percent; $500,000 to $1 million increased 8 percent; and $2 million and above increased 12 percent from January 2014 to January 2015.   The greater Naples area housing market has had dramatic changes in inventory, price, availability and demand over the past year; more so in some neighborhoods than in others. It is because of those changes and the increasingly complex documentation involved in buying and selling homes that buyers and sellers are working closely with a REALTOR®. When you work with a REALTOR® who understands the diverse tapestry of the Naples area real estate market, you are partnering with a professional who has the experience you need to buy or sell with confidence in either the new home or resale markets. As always if you have any questions about our Market here in South West Florida feel free to contact me by calling 239.404.7787 or by e-mail at Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com . You can always visit my web-site and become my VIP Customer to view all of our market Active, Pending and Closed Sales. I also have placed a NEW Naples Development Map to help navigate you through our New Construction here in Naples; with over 35 new Development to learn about. I can help you discover endless possibilities with your next transaction. Let's Talk about your next move today! Michelle   View January 2015 Market Statistics   To view the entire report, visit www.NaplesArea.com

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Michelle J. DeNomme, REALTOR, GRI

Cellular Phone:  239.404.7787

E-Mail: Michelle@NaplesHomeSweetHome.com

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty

Office: 239.659.2400

E-Fax Number:  239.236.5550

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